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Disclaimer: Publication of an article in the COMMENTARY series does not imply CSIS authentication of the information nor CSIS endorsement of the author's views.
Peter Gizewski is Senior Associate, Project on Environment Population and Security, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University of Toronto. In this Commentary, he provides general insights on environmental scarcity and conflicts in different parts of the world. Spring 1997. Authour: Peter Gizewski[Full Text]
In this Commentary Samuel Porteous, a Strategic Analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, examines the phenomenon of transnational crime from an intelligence perspective. - Winter 1996. Author: Samuel D. Porteous[Full Text]
Conrad Namiesniowski is a Strategic Analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. In this Commentary, he examines the prospects for democracy in Russia in the wake of the recent elections in that country and the continuing uncertainty surrounding the health of the Russian President. - Fall 1996. Author: Conrad Namiesniowski[Full Text]
Having predicted in Commentary over a year ago both the fact and the timing of the recent resignation of F.W. de Klerk and the National Party from Nelson Mandela's Government of National Unity, the authors update their earlier reports (cf. Commentary No. 54, March 1995 South Africa: An Interim Report and No. 44, May 1994 South Africa: The Real Threat to Sustainable Democracy) on the evolving political, economic and social situation in that country - Summer 1996. Authors: Duncan Edmonds and Allister Sparks[Full Text]
In China, the legacy of almost half a century of heavy central planning together with massive population pressures, rapid economic growth, chronic poverty, subsidized energy prices, widespread coal use, outdated industrial machinery and a lax environmental protection regime have contributed to serious environmental stress. While environmental degradation in itself does not imply violent conflict, it can become a basis for confrontation, particularly in conjunction with political and social factors. Likewise, because many environmental problems are global in scope, China's environmental problems are likely to become of greater interest to Canada—whether or not they result in a violent intrastate or interstate response.
This paper examines the extent and nature of environmental degradation in China and assesses whether China's current leadership is likely to follow a sustainable development strategy. The prospects for increased Canadian trade, investment and technology transfers and the security implications for Canadian interests in China are also considered. - March 1996. Authors: Nicolino Strizzi and Robert T. Stranks[Full Text]
On 1 October 1995—Nigeria's 35th independence anniversary—Nigeria's present military head-of-state, General Sani Abacha, announced yet another attempt to transfer national governance from military rule to a civilian "Third Republic"—a process likely to take at least three years and probably beyond. Yet the New York-based human rights group Freedom House, in its 1995 annual rating survey, reported that Nigeria had slipped into the "worst human rights violators" category because of "its increasingly brutal military dictatorship and rigged judicial process." - February 1996. Author: Dr. Robert D'A. Henderson[Full Text]
Of the many places where Islamic fundamentalism is colliding with its "enemies" -- the Middle East and certain Gulf states, Afghanistan and even to an extent, Bosnia -- one of the most volatile is Algeria. Here the situation takes on more than a religious dimension, given the December 1991 electoral victory of the Islamic Salvation Front (subsequently annulled by the ruling military), the number of Algerians who currently reside in France (800,000), and conversely, the large French community in Algeria (750,000). The author approaches the topic first, by providing a brief overview of the previous, and current, phases of civil unrest; and then by a closer examination of the efforts to "internationalize" the struggle. - January 1996. Author: Professor Peter St. John[Full Text]
While the Dayton Agreement may seem a milestone on the road to peace, and the initial reaction of the Bosnian factions a classic compromise, the journey is apt to be long. Is Dayton in fact merely a stop en route to a "Greater Serbia" and "Greater Croatia", with an undetermined fate for the Muslim sector? Or will it lead to a revival of the open, multi-ethnic society Bosnia once knew? - December 1995. Author: Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja[Full Text]
The principal reasons for Iran's isolation from the mainstream international community are, at least on the surface, relatively easy to list: the absence of formal diplomatic relations with the USA since the hostage-taking incident in 1979; Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions; its opposition to the Middle East peace process; its support for terrorists in the region; its internal human rights abuses; assassinations of those opposed to the regime abroad; the "eternal fatwa" calling for the death of author Salman Rushdie; and in May 1993, the American government's announcement of its "dual containment policy" aimed at Iraq and Iran. Most recently (April 1995), the American Administration imposed a total trade embargo on Iran and has subsequently sought the support of its allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Clearly the noose has tightened, and the rhetoric has heightened. Below the surface, what is behind this hardening of attitudes? How has Iran, and the rest of the international community, reacted? - November 1995. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward[Full Text]
Around the world during 1995, events have been organized for the 50th Anniversary of the United Nations, and to honour those who signed the Charter on 26 June 1945 in San Francisco. The 50th Anniversary has also prompted proposals for UN reform, many of which focus on UN practices and on the UN Charter itself. However, we are pleased in what follows to present a somewhat different perspective on UN reform, from a distinguished Canadian, eminently qualified to comment. His strong calls for reform of the UN as an instrument of global governance divide into four parts: Common Security, Common Development, Common Rights and Common Participation, and stress the need "to make room for the peoples of the world and their associations, and not just their governments". - October 1995. Author: Dr. Michael Oliver[Full Text]
Democracy is not nearly as hardy a plant as might be imagined: it withers quickly where governments fail to improve the economic conditions of the majority, or where military leaders threaten to vie for power, or where the rewards of corruption replace normal, rational commerce. And in certain Latin American countries, for example, where democracy has only recently taken hold, a change in government can sometimes also presage a change in democracy's deeper roots: the rule of law, human rights, the independence of the judiciary, public trust in the police and military. The prospects for the long-term growth of democracy in Latin America is the principal concern of the author of the month's Commentary. - September 1995. Author: Mr. H. P. Klepak[Full Text]
The author examines existing research on the subject of chemical and biological (CB) terrorism in light of the recent attacks in Japan, and proposes answers to a number of questions: what characteristics of CB agents might incline terrorists to their use? What degree of expertise is required? Which kind of terrorist group would be most likely to use CB agents? What type of agents would they be? How would they be obtained and delivered? These and a series of related concerns lead the author to some interesting conclusions about the likelihood of future attacks, and in short, about the reality of the threat posed by CB terrorism. - August 1995. Author: Mr. Ron Purver[Full Text]
In this third in a series (see #32 and #46)the author focuses on the role of intelligence services in protecting and pursuing a state's economic/commercial interests, and on how Western governments are beginning to approach this issue since the end of the Cold War. In particular, the author addresses the provision of economic intelligence to government decision-makers, and the future of the relationship between economic interests and intelligence services. - July 1995. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous[Full Text]
Well known diseases (such as tuberculosis) continue to kill far more people than do new ones (such as AIDS). Yet for other reasons discussed here, these emerging pathogens are currently the object of careful attention by doctors and researchers, including the author. Dr. Rozee identifies a number of problems facing those engaged in the battle: new strains of virulent pathogens continue to appear; many of the traditional enemies have developed a hardy resistance to antibiotics; transmissibility is virtually impossible to prevent; financial resources are strained. Yet his review of existing facilities and counter-measures in Canada, and his prescription for further improvements, offer a strong antidote to these threats in an "epidemic era". - June 1995. Author: Dr. K. R. Rozee[Full Text]
Ever since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, reports have circulated with increasing frequency concerning attempts to smuggle materials from that country's civil and military nuclear programs. Such an increase obviously raises a number of concerns, chief among which is the possibility that these materials might eventually fall into the hands of proliferant states or terrorist groups. - May 1995. Authors: Dr. A. Robitaille & Mr. R. Purver[Full Text]
In his second in a series on the Russian Federation the author examines those factors and forces now shaping a new Russian foreign policy. Although present internal conditions severely limit Russia's traditional foreign adventures, its relations with the so-called near abroad -- the former Soviet republics -- can have disastrous implications, as the recent carnage in Chechnya clearly showed. The former republics in central Asia are almost as worrisome: continued financial support from Russia is increasingly problematic, yet without it, prospects for their continued survival are equally in doubt. The author then widens his perspective to consider Russia's policies toward Europe, Asia, the Indian sub continent, and of course, the United States. After the trauma of 1991, Russia is regaining its feet and appears to be pursuing realpolitik .... - April 1995. Author: Mr. Conrad Namiesniowski[Full Text]
March 1995[Full Text]
Approximately one year ago, Commentary #44 dealt with the challenges facing a new, post-apartheid South Africa; and concluded with a prognosis of cautious optimism. As South Africa approaches the first anniversary of the dramatic events that culminated in the election of the Mandela Government of National Unity, we once again welcome the authors' views in this interim report. March 1995. Authors: Mr. Duncan Edmonds & Mr. Allister Sparks[Full Text]
In this issue, the author comments on post-Cold War terrorism in general and puts forth some very specific views on terrorism in the Middle East, threats from the extreme right, and issue-specific terrorism. He concludes with five principles "which have the best track record in reducing terrorism". January 1995. Author: Mr. Paul Wilkinson[Full Text]
Chiapas, NAFTA, Colosio, Zedillo, Zapatista — all names that have recently entered the international lexicon during an extraordinary year in Mexico's history. And to the questions of political stability which these terms raise is added the urgent issue of economic stability, following the dramatic devaluation of the peso in recent weeks, and the hastily arranged $18 billion line of credit offered to Mexico as part of a plan to deal with its economic crisis. The author puts these events in context, and ventures both political and economic predictions for the near future. December 1994. Author: An analyst in the Analysis & Production Branch of CSIS[Full Text]
The fact that the horror of open warfare has continued for over five years in what was Yugoslavia cannot be explained away by the facile notion that long-suppressed ethnic tensions finally erupted when the Soviet Union collapsed. As the author of this month's Commentary points out, a principal reason for the failure to halt, if not avert, the war may have been the lack of an agreement amongst the major powers as to what constitutes a new European security architecture. March 1995. Author: Mr. Christopher Anstis [Full Text]
One of the main concerns of this issue of Commentary is to provide a coherent explanation for the "apparent explosion of conflicts centered on ethnicity" , particularly since the end of the Cold War. One theory holds that "tribal" conflicts are a sudden release of those previously held in check during the bi-polar superpower tensions of the last 40 years; another, that "ethnic identities are perhaps more fundamental and persistent than loyalties to larger social units". Readers will perhaps be surprised at Dr. Gurr's conclusions not only as to the causes, but also the venues and the solutions to these conflicts. November 1994. Author: Dr. Ted Robert Gurr (Presidential Address to the International Studies Association Annual Meeting held on 1 April 1994 in Washington, D.C., reproduced here with the kind permission of the author and the editors of International Studies Quarterly.)[Full Text]
One year after the historic "Declaration of Principles" was signed in Washington, current developments in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines and of course, the hearts and minds of millions of inhabitants of that region. The author provides a context for these recent events, and outlines three major hurdles still facing the peace process. October 1994. Author: Dr. William Millward[Full Text]
The political and economic uncertainty that prevails today in all the republics of the former Soviet Union has provided auspicious conditions for crime proliferation. It is not surprising, therefore, that organized crime has become an increasingly severe and pervasive problem, particularly in the Russian Federation, the largest of the successor republics. Some of this activity is now spilling into Western Europe and North America, where Canada is not immune. September 1994. Authors: Dr. Leonid Maximenkov & Mr. C. Namiesniowski [Full Text]
Environmental concerns have gone well past the status of being just another "issue" among many that compete for daily media attention. The environment, as one commentator put it bluntly, is where we live. In this months Commentary, the author draws attention to the ominous fact that environmental issues have also entered "the list of threats to national and international security" and are now "central factors in a self-sustaining cycle of impoverishment, repression and mass movement" . The author concludes with some examples of how international mechanisms and traditional "intelligence" may be brought to bear on an increasingly global problem. August 1994. Author: Mr. Berel Rodal[Full Text]
In his second and final paper in a series, the author moves the discussion of economic espionage forward from his earlier Commentary #32, and provides an overview and analysis of the current state of the debate on economic espionage. July 1994. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous[Full Text]
The relationship between intelligence and policy can elicit different answers, depending on how the question is posed: How, traditionally, has the government made use of intelligence? How does it use intelligence now? How should it use intelligence? Particularly since the end of the Cold War, Western democracies and their intelligence services have been carefully re-examining the question in all its forms. June 1994. Author: Mr. Blair Seaborn [Full Text]
In February 1990, F. W. de Klerk made a dramatic announcement to South Africa's parliament that symbolized for racism what the fall of the Berlin Wall meant for communism: Nelson Mandela was to be released; the African National Congress would be legalized; and the government would begin negotiations leading to a national constitution with equal rights for all South Africans. What is not generally known is that for years prior to his announcement, the South African government had been carefully and secretly discussing the power-sharing arrangements with Mr. Mandela, in preparation for his eventual release. We have recently witnessed the initial results of this remarkable, negotiated revolution. In this issue, the author outlines a number of difficult challenges to President Mandela's new government. May 1994. Author: Mr. Duncan Edmonds [Full Text]
A number of factors combine in any assessment of potential Chinese immigration to North America: current economic and social conditions in China; the recent massive internal migration from the rural to the coastal regions; uncertain political succession; and post-1997 Hong Kong are among those discussed below. In particular, the author examines illegal immigration by sea as an indication of the growing desperation of thousands of Chinese. April 1994. Author: Mr. Paul George [Full Text]
Developments in modern China can be characterized in three ways: enormous, contradictory and rapid. Numerous peasant revolts, a rising crime rate, an inequitable tax system and uncertain political succession after Deng Xiaoping all constitute sources of significant potential instability. Yet China's recent economic advances have been spectacular, due in part to the impressive behaviour of private enterprise initiatives in the villages and townships. An enormous labour pool has led to increased foreign exports, and China's trade balances are improving, particularly with the West. As the author here points out, we are witnessing at once an industrial revolution of unparalleled proportions, the emergence of a so-called socialist/market economy and the release of forces in the civilian society that the current régime is finding very difficult to control. April 1994. Author: An analyst in the Analysis and Production Branch of CSIS[Full Text]
Nine years after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the former Soviet Union (March 1985) and released the genies of glasnost and perestroika, his successor, Boris Yeltsin, finds himself struggling to contain other forces he himself released (some from prison), and is facing another spectre in the form of an extreme nationalist. As the author points out, the search is far from over, as a broad, domestic consensus on the future of the Russian State has yet to form. March 1994. Author: Mr. Conrad Namiesniowski[Full Text]
The balance — if it can be called that — between the IRA's constitutional goals of "revolutionary armed struggle" and political actions has tipped dramatically during the last decade in favour of the former. This is especially true where Irish Republican terrorism "out-of-theatre" is concerned; ie., the conduct of terrorist operations in the UK and Europe. The author explores the recent history of this phenomenon and provides a detailed account of this latest phase of Republican terrorism: the "Armalite and the Ballot Box" . February 1994. Author: An analyst with the Analysis and Production Branch of CSIS.[Full Text]
Since the author first dealt with the leadership structures in Iran (Commentary #20, April 1992), a number of forces, and a number of deaths among the senior ranks, prompt a closer look at the hierarchy of power in Iran. The departure of the old guard raises central questions not only of succession, but of who decides. January 1994. Author: Dr. William Millward [Full Text]
The wave of immigration from the former Soviet Bloc westward since 1991 is a relatively unknown phenomenon in North America. However, as the author points out, in 1992 alone "about six million people were displaced or prone to migrate from Eastern Europe" . Where they go, how they get there, and the problems created by this unprecedented mobility form the themes of this issue of Commentary. January 1994. Authors: Dr. Allan Kagedan & Dr. Opalski [Full Text]
This is the second in a continuing series on the relationship between the broad concept of national security and a nations economy - a relationship which, as the author points out, attracted little attention in North America until recently. In this issue, the author focuses on a particularly controversial aspect of economic security — "equity" — and examines security implications stemming from the economic crisis facing the developed world. December 1993. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous[Full Text]
November, 1993.[Full Text]
In the first in a series on the remarkable developments in the region, the author provides a detailed analysis of the specifics of the recent Israeli-PLO accord. October, 1993. Author: Dr. W. Millward[Full Text]
Since the 1960s Japan has rapidly become a leader in the development of science and technology. The various methods of achieving this rapid advance through efficient use of information management are described. August 1993. Author: Dr. V. Ujimoto[Full Text]
An overview of the world-wide trade in armaments, the pros and cons of arms transfers and Canada's role in trade and control of the industry. July 1993. Author: Mr. Ron Purver[Full Text]
An analysis of the extent of the problem of economic espionage and its impact on Canada. The discussion concludes with the arguments for and against government involvement in economic espionage. May 1993. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous [Full Text]
The second part of the series examines the nature of the threat from the Islamic revival. The discussion centres on three trends: the political successes of the mainstream elements, radicalization as a result of repression and an "Iranian network". April 1993. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward[Full Text]
The first of this two-part series examines the roots and goals of the Islamic revival that has been taking place in the Middle East and North Africa, and the differences between mainstream and militant Islamism. April 1993. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward[Full Text]
An overview of the conflicting interests and territorial claims of the diverse parties to the violence in the Balkans. March 1993. Author: Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja
After 14 months, the structure of the CIS is still uncertain. In this article, the current situation is examined with a focus on the opposing minimalist and maximalist views for the future. March 1993 Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
The five newly independent states of Central Asian are struggling to define their roles in the region and internationally. What are the chances that political and economic instability in the region will produce conditions favourable to the emergence of five Islamic fundamentalist states on the Iranian model? Nov. 1992. Authors: Drs. Kagedan & Millward
The author analyses the forces that will contribute to the possible success or failure of current democratization movements world-wide and contemplates alternative governance scenarios. Sept. 1992. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
A discussion of four factors that will influence the new round of Middle East peace talks: the Israeli settlements, the strength of the governing coalition, the influence of extremists on both sides and the outcome of the American presidential election. Sept. 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward
The Soviet KGB has been succeeded by the Russian Security Ministry (MBR). What will be the function of this new intelligence service and how will it be controlled? June 1992. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan[Full Text]
A discussion of the state of the Cuban economy and political structure since the withdrawal of Soviet aid. Three options for the future of Cuba are offered: Castro's resignation, the death of the Cuban leader, or an attempted coup. June 1992. Author: Mr. Charles Svoboda[Full Text]
In 1979, diplomatic relations were cut off between Egypt and Iran when the former signed the Camp David Accord. Three obstacles to the renewal of diplomatic relations are discussed: Egypt's commitment to peace with Israel, apprehension over the Islamic factor and an inherent distrust of Iran's regional intentions. May 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward[Full Text]
An examination of the increase in militant activism in support of animal rights. Apr. 1992. Author: Dr. G. D. (Tim) Smith [Full Text]
Since 1979 the legitimacy of the religious leadership of Iran has been questioned. The author explores whether the legitimate authority of the present régime stems from the support of the people of Iran or from religious authority. Apr. 1992. Author: Dr. Wm. Millward [Full Text]
In the wake of the Cold War, newly industrializing countries that previously depended on a supply of technology from either Western or communist allies are now being forced to look elsewhere. The author predicts that many NICs will begin to use their intelligence services to gain access to restricted technologies and international commercial intelligence. Mar. 1992. Author: Dr. R. Henderson[Full Text]
An examination of the roots of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno Karabakh and the prospects for peace. Mar. 1992. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan [Full Text]
A compilation of the proceedings of conferences attended by two strategic analysts. In the first, Dr. Smith describes the discussions held in Great Britain on governments' options in dealing with international terrorism. In the second, Dr. Kagedan relates the proceedings of a conference on developments in Europe and the reaction of the American military and foreign policy establishments. The third report is Dr. Millward's description of being hijacked on his way to an international seminar on the Middle East. Feb. 1992. Authors: Drs. Smith, Kagedan & Millward[Full Text]
Within the broader background of the historic enmities between the various nationalities that made up the former Yugoslavia, Mr. Hamilton analyses the reasons for the failure of the European Community in dealing with the increasing violence. The author concludes that the best hope for peace lies with the United Nations, not the EC. Dec. 1991. Author: Mr. Wm. Hamilton[Full Text]
In the midst of the increasing violence due to political transition, how is President de Klerk dealing with the intelligence services which have traditionally had strong input into the decision-making process of government? Nov. 1991. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
Dr. Kagedan examines two factors that will determine whether the new structure of the former Soviet Union will be a confederation or a diverse group of new states: the crumbling economy and rising nationalism. Nov. 1991. Author: Dr. Allan Kagedan
Does the voluntary capitulation of Columbia's most wanted narco-terrorist, Pablo Emilio Escobar Gaviria, spell a victory for the Columbian government or is it simply a sign that terrorism works? Oct. 1991. Author: Dr. G. (Tim) Smith
With the end of the Gulf War, there is tacit acceptance of a responsibility on the part of the coalition members — particularly the USA — to bring resources to bear on the Arab-Israeli-Palestinian dispute. What are the chances that this will, in fact, occur? Sept. 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
Historical parallels are of limited use in trying to determine the direction of recent events in the Soviet Union, set in motion by Gorbachev's policy of perestroika. Three principal options are explored here: a reversion to authoritarianism, a coup and a full-scale revolution. July 1991. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
At the end of the Gulf War, what new strategic arrangements can be put in place in the region to prevent a repetition of the recent round of hostilities? June 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
President de Klerk has a narrow choice of security options to prevent the derailing of negotiations for political reform in South Africa. In this third of a three-part study, the author posits two basic options for de Klerk to prevent the country from sliding into endemic violence and civil conflict. March 1991. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
A review of the prospects for social and political reconstruction in Iraq and the region. Assuming an allied forces victory and that Saddam Hussein survives, what are the most likely scenarios in the near-term for Iraq and the affected region? Feb. 1991. Author: Dr. W. Millward
The second of three parts. Despite efforts at "law and order" , de Klerk's emergency powers appear to have been ineffective against the mounting violence in South Africa. The author traces various types of violence in that country — both perpetrators and victims — in an effort to sketch out the factions competing for power in a country on the verge of unprecedented political upheaval. Dec. 1990. Author: Dr. R. Henderson
The paper outlines the historical and cultural parameters which conditioned Iraqi behaviour leading to its invasion of Kuwait, and traces the Arab worlds initial reaction. Nov. 1990. Author: Dr. W. Millward
The first of three on de Klerk's political initiatives aimed at a peaceful solution to the country's racial conflicts, and the opposition by political and racial extremists. This first article focuses on de Klerk's definition of "law and order", which many observers have interpreted at best as a reinforcement of the status quo, and at worst, a retrenchment of conservative values. Aug. 1990. Author: Dr. Robert Henderson
Following the collapse of the East European communist régimes in 1989, their intelligence services were either disbanded or restructured. The author examines the future options for their intelligence officers: do they pose a threat to Western countries? July 1990. Author: Dr. Robert Henderson
The final in a series of three papers on the Soviet Union, this issue answers three fundamental questions about Gorbachev: Is he strictly a pragmatist? Is he a Marxist-Leninist? How committed is he to perestroika? June 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
The author looks at recent Soviet press interviews with senior KGB officers to determine how they are adapting to perestroika. Their views indicate an expanding rather than shrinking role for the KGB in the reform processes launched by Gorbachev. February 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
An examination of Gorbachev's thinking, especially as it relates to perestroika in a Marxist-Leninist context. The analysis is based on a series of published articles and speeches by Gorbachev himself, especially a lengthy article in Pravda on 29 November 1989. The first in a three-part series by the author on events in the Soviet Union. January 1990. Author: Dr. B. Harasymiw
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